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.agents/skills/churn-prevention/references/cancel-flow-patterns.md
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# Cancel Flow Patterns
Detailed cancel flow patterns by business type, billing provider, and industry.
---
## Cancel Flow by Business Type
### B2C / Self-Serve SaaS
High volume, low touch. The flow must work without human intervention.
**Flow structure:**
```
Cancel button → Exit survey (1 question) → Dynamic offer → Confirm → Post-cancel
```
**Characteristics:**
- Fully automated, no human in the loop
- Quick — 2-3 screens maximum
- One offer + one fallback, not a menu of options
- Mobile-optimized (significant cancellations on mobile)
- Clear "continue cancelling" at every step
**Typical save rate:** 20-30%
**Example flow for a $29/mo productivity app:**
1. "What's the main reason?" → 6 options
2. Selected "Too expensive" → "Get 25% off for 3 months (save $21.75)"
3. Declined → "Or switch to our Starter plan at $12/mo"
4. Declined → "We're sorry to see you go. Your access continues until [date]."
---
### B2B / Team Plans
Lower volume, higher stakes. Personal outreach is worth the cost.
**Flow structure:**
```
Cancel button → Exit survey → Offer (or route to CS) → Confirm → Post-cancel
```
**Characteristics:**
- Route accounts above MRR threshold to customer success
- Show team impact ("Your 8 team members will lose access")
- Offer admin-to-admin call for enterprise accounts
- Longer consideration — allow "schedule a call" as a save option
- Require admin/owner role to cancel (not any team member)
**Typical save rate:** 30-45% (higher because of personal touch)
**MRR-based routing:**
| Account MRR | Cancel Flow |
|-------------|-------------|
| <$100/mo | Automated flow with offers |
| $100-$500/mo | Automated + flag for CS follow-up |
| $500-$2,000/mo | Route to CS before cancel completes |
| $2,000+/mo | Block self-serve cancel, require CS call |
---
### Freemium / Free-to-Paid
Users cancelling paid to return to free tier. Different psychology — they're not leaving, they're downgrading.
**Flow structure:**
```
Cancel button → "Switch to Free?" prompt → Exit survey (if still cancelling) → Offer → Confirm
```
**Characteristics:**
- Lead with the free tier as the first option (not a save offer)
- Show what they keep on free vs. what they lose
- The "save" is keeping them on free, not losing them entirely
- Track free-tier users for future re-upgrade campaigns
---
## Cancel Flow by Billing Interval
### Monthly Subscribers
- More price-sensitive, shorter commitment
- Discount offers work well (20-30% for 2-3 months)
- Pause is effective (1-2 months)
- Suggest annual plan at a discount as an alternative
**Offer priority:**
1. Discount (if reason = price)
2. Pause (if reason = not using / temporary)
3. Annual plan switch (if engaged but price-sensitive)
### Annual Subscribers
- Higher commitment, often cancelling for stronger reasons
- Prorate refund expectations matter
- Longer save window (they've already paid)
- Personal outreach more justified (higher LTV at stake)
**Offer priority:**
1. Pause remainder of term (if temporary)
2. Plan adjustment + credit for next renewal
3. Personal outreach from CS
4. Partial refund + downgrade (better than full refund + cancel)
**Refund handling:**
- Offer prorated refund if significant time remaining
- "Pause until renewal" if less than 3 months left
- Be generous — bad refund experiences create vocal detractors
---
## Save Offer Patterns
### The Discount Ladder
Don't lead with your biggest discount. Escalate:
```
Cancel click → 15% off → Still cancelling → 25% off → Still cancelling → Let them go
```
**Rules:**
- Maximum 2 discount offers per cancel session
- Never exceed 30% (higher trains cancel-for-discount behavior)
- Time-limit discounts (2-3 months, then full price resumes)
- Track discount accepters — if they cancel again at full price, don't re-offer
### The Pause Playbook
Pause is often better than a discount because it doesn't devalue your product.
**Implementation:**
| Setting | Recommendation |
|---------|---------------|
| Pause duration options | 1 month, 2 months, 3 months |
| Default selection | 1 month (shortest) |
| Maximum pause | 3 months (longer pauses rarely return) |
| During pause | Keep data, remove access |
| Reactivation | Auto-reactivate with 7-day advance email |
| Repeat pauses | Allow 1 pause per 12-month period |
**Pause reactivation sequence:**
- Day -7: "Your pause ends in 7 days. We've been busy — here's what's new."
- Day -1: "Welcome back tomorrow! Here's what's waiting for you."
- Day 0: "You're back! Here's a quick tour of what's new."
### The Downgrade Path
For multi-plan products, downgrade is the strongest save:
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Before you go, what about right-sizing │
│ your plan? │
│ │
│ Current: Pro ($49/mo) │
│ │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ Switch to Starter ($19/mo) │ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ ✓ Keep: Projects, integrations │ │
│ │ ✗ Lose: Advanced analytics, │ │
│ │ team features │ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ [Switch to Starter] │ │
│ └─────────────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
│ [No thanks, continue cancelling] │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
**Downgrade best practices:**
- Show exactly what they keep and what they lose
- Use checkmarks and X marks for scanability
- Preserve their data even on the lower plan
- If they downgrade, don't show upgrade prompts for at least 30 days
### The Competitor Switch Handler
When the cancel reason is "switching to competitor":
1. **Ask which competitor** (optional, don't force it)
2. **Show a comparison** if you have one (see competitor-alternatives skill)
3. **Offer a migration credit** ("We'll match their price for 3 months")
4. **Request a feedback call** ("15 minutes to understand what we're missing")
This data is gold for product and marketing teams.
---
## Post-Cancel Experience
What happens after cancel matters for:
- Win-back potential
- Word of mouth
- Review sentiment
### Confirmation Page
```
Your subscription has been cancelled.
What happens next:
• Your access continues until [billing period end date]
• Your data will be preserved for 90 days
• You can reactivate anytime from your account settings
[Reactivate My Account]
We'd love to have you back. We'll keep improving based on feedback
from customers like you.
```
### Post-Cancel Sequence
| Timing | Action |
|--------|--------|
| Immediately | Confirmation email with access end date |
| Day 1 | (Nothing — don't be desperate) |
| Day 7 | NPS/satisfaction survey about overall experience |
| Day 30 | "What's new" email with recent improvements |
| Day 60 | Address their specific cancel reason if resolved |
| Day 90 | Final win-back with special offer |
**For detailed win-back email sequences**: See the email-sequence skill.
---
## Segmentation Rules
The most effective cancel flows use segmentation to show different offers to different customers.
### Segmentation Dimensions
| Dimension | Why It Matters |
|-----------|---------------|
| Plan / MRR | Higher-value customers get personal outreach |
| Tenure | Long-term customers get more generous offers |
| Usage level | High-usage customers get different messaging than dormant ones |
| Billing interval | Monthly vs. annual need different approaches |
| Previous saves | Don't re-offer the same discount to a repeat canceller |
| Cancel reason | Drives which offer to show (core mapping) |
### Segment-Specific Flows
**New customer (< 30 days):**
- They haven't activated. The save is onboarding, not discounts.
- Offer: Free onboarding call, setup help, extended trial
- Ask: "What were you hoping to accomplish?" (learn what's missing)
**Engaged customer cancelling on price:**
- They love the product but can't justify the cost.
- Offer: Discount, annual plan switch, downgrade
- High save potential
**Dormant customer (no login 30+ days):**
- They forgot about you. A discount won't bring them back.
- Offer: Pause subscription, "what changed?" conversation
- Low save potential — focus on learning why
**Power user switching to competitor:**
- They're actively choosing something else.
- Offer: Competitive match, feedback call, roadmap preview
- Medium save potential — depends on reason
---
## Implementation Checklist
### Phase 1: Foundation (Week 1)
- [ ] Add cancel flow (survey + 1 offer + confirmation)
- [ ] Set up exit survey with 5-7 reason categories
- [ ] Map one offer per reason (simple 1:1 mapping)
- [ ] Track cancel reasons and save rate in analytics
- [ ] Enable pre-dunning card expiry emails
### Phase 2: Optimization (Weeks 2-4)
- [ ] Add fallback offers (primary + secondary per reason)
- [ ] Implement pause subscription option
- [ ] Set up dunning email sequence (4 emails over 10 days)
- [ ] Enable smart retries (Stripe Smart Retries or equivalent)
- [ ] Add MRR-based routing for high-value accounts
### Phase 3: Advanced (Month 2+)
- [ ] Build health score from usage signals
- [ ] Set up proactive intervention triggers
- [ ] A/B test discount amounts and offer types
- [ ] Segment flows by plan, tenure, and usage
- [ ] Post-cancel win-back sequence (coordinate with email-sequence skill)
- [ ] Cohort analysis: churn by channel, plan, tenure
---
## Compliance Notes
### FTC Click-to-Cancel Rule (US)
- Cancellation must be as easy as signup
- Cannot require a phone call to cancel if signup was online
- Cannot add excessive steps to discourage cancellation
- Save offers are allowed but "continue cancelling" must be clear
### GDPR / Data Retention (EU)
- Inform users about data retention period post-cancel
- Offer data export before account deletion
- Honor deletion requests within 30 days
- Don't use post-cancel data for marketing without consent
### General Best Practices
- Always show a clear path to complete cancellation
- Never hide the cancel button (dark pattern)
- Process cancellation even if save flow has errors
- Confirm cancellation with email receipt
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# Dunning Playbook
Complete guide to recovering failed payments and reducing involuntary churn.
---
## Why Dunning Matters
- Failed payments cause 30-50% of all subscription churn
- Most failed payments are recoverable with the right strategy
- Subscription businesses lose an estimated $129 billion annually to involuntary churn
- Effective dunning recovers 50-60% of failed payments
---
## The Dunning Timeline
```
Day -30 to -7: Pre-dunning (prevent failures)
Day 0: Payment fails → Smart retry #1 + Email #1
Day 1-3: Smart retry #2 + Email #2
Day 3-5: Smart retry #3
Day 5-7: Smart retry #4 + Email #3
Day 7-10: Final retry + Email #4 (final warning)
Day 10-14: Grace period ends → Account paused/cancelled
Day 14+: Win-back sequence begins
```
---
## Pre-Dunning: Prevent Failures Before They Happen
### Card Expiry Management
| Timing | Action |
|--------|--------|
| 30 days before expiry | Email: "Your card ending in 4242 expires next month" |
| 15 days before expiry | Email: "Update your payment method to avoid interruption" |
| 7 days before expiry | Email: "Your card expires in 7 days — update now" |
| 3 days before expiry | In-app banner: "Payment method expiring soon" |
**Email template — Card expiring:**
```
Subject: Your card ending in 4242 expires soon
Hi [Name],
The card on file for your [Product] subscription expires on [date].
Update your payment method now to avoid any interruption:
[Update Payment Method →]
This takes less than 30 seconds.
— [Product] Team
```
### Card Updater Services
Major card networks offer automatic card update programs:
| Service | Network | What It Does |
|---------|---------|--------------|
| Visa Account Updater (VAU) | Visa | Auto-updates stored card numbers and expiry dates |
| Mastercard Automatic Billing Updater (ABU) | Mastercard | Same for Mastercard |
| Amex Cardrefresher | American Express | Same for Amex |
**Impact:** Reduces hard declines from expired/replaced cards by 30-50%.
**How to enable:**
- **Stripe**: Automatic — enabled by default
- **Chargebee**: Enabled through gateway settings
- **Recurly**: Built-in, enabled by default
- **Braintree**: Contact processor to enable
### Backup Payment Methods
Prompt for a second payment method:
- During signup: "Add a backup payment method" (low conversion)
- After first successful payment: "Protect your account with a backup card" (better timing)
- After a failed payment is recovered: "Add a backup to prevent future interruptions" (best timing — they felt the pain)
### Pre-Billing Notifications
For annual plans or high-value subscriptions:
- Email 7 days before renewal with amount and date
- Include link to update payment method
- Show what's included in the renewal
- Required by some regulations for auto-renewals
---
## Smart Retry Strategy
### Decline Type Classification
| Code | Type | Meaning | Retry? |
|------|------|---------|--------|
| `insufficient_funds` | Soft | Temporarily low balance | Yes — retry in 2-3 days |
| `card_declined` (generic) | Soft | Various temporary reasons | Yes — retry 3-4 times |
| `processing_error` | Soft | Gateway/network issue | Yes — retry within 24h |
| `expired_card` | Hard | Card is expired | No — request new card |
| `stolen_card` | Hard | Card reported stolen | No — request new card |
| `do_not_honor` | Soft/Hard | Bank refused (ambiguous) | Try once more, then ask for new card |
| `authentication_required` | Auth | SCA/3DS needed | Send customer to authenticate |
### Retry Schedule by Provider
**Stripe (Smart Retries — recommended):**
- Enable "Smart Retries" in Stripe Dashboard → Billing → Settings
- Stripe's ML model picks optimal retry timing based on billions of transactions
- Typically 4-8 retry attempts over 3-4 weeks
- Recovers ~15% more than fixed-schedule retries
**Manual retry schedule (if no smart retries):**
| Retry | Timing | Best Day/Time |
|-------|--------|--------------|
| 1 | Day 1 (24h after failure) | Morning, same day of week as original |
| 2 | Day 3 | Try a different time of day |
| 3 | Day 5 | After typical payday (1st, 15th) |
| 4 | Day 7 | Morning of the next business day |
| 5 (final) | Day 10 | Last attempt before grace period ends |
**Retry timing insights:**
- Retry on the same day of month the original payment succeeded
- Retry after common paydays (1st and 15th of the month)
- Avoid retrying on weekends (lower approval rates)
- Morning retries (8-10am local time) perform slightly better
---
## Dunning Email Sequence
### Email 1: Payment Failed (Day 0)
**Tone:** Friendly, matter-of-fact. No alarm.
```
Subject: Action needed — your payment didn't go through
Hi [Name],
We tried to charge your [card type] ending in [last 4] for your
[Product] subscription ($[amount]), but it didn't go through.
This happens sometimes — usually a quick card update fixes it.
[Update Payment Method →]
Your access isn't affected yet. We'll retry automatically, but
updating your card is the fastest fix.
Need help? Just reply to this email.
— [Product] Team
```
### Email 2: Reminder (Day 3)
**Tone:** Helpful, slightly more urgent.
```
Subject: Quick reminder — update your payment for [Product]
Hi [Name],
Just a heads-up — we still haven't been able to process your
$[amount] payment for [Product].
[Update Payment Method →]
Takes less than 30 seconds. Your [data/projects/team access]
is safe, but we'll need a valid payment method to keep your
account active.
Questions? Reply here and we'll help.
— [Product] Team
```
### Email 3: Urgency (Day 7)
**Tone:** Direct, clear consequences.
```
Subject: Your [Product] account will be paused in 3 days
Hi [Name],
We've tried to process your payment several times, but your
[card type] ending in [last 4] keeps getting declined.
If we don't receive payment by [date], your account will be
paused and you'll lose access to:
• [Key feature/data they use]
• [Their projects/workspace]
• [Team access for X members]
[Update Payment Method Now →]
Your data won't be deleted — you can reactivate anytime by
updating your payment method.
— [Product] Team
```
### Email 4: Final Warning (Day 10)
**Tone:** Final, clear, no guilt.
```
Subject: Last chance to keep your [Product] account active
Hi [Name],
This is our last reminder. Your payment of $[amount] is past
due, and your account will be paused tomorrow ([date]).
[Update Payment Method →]
After pausing:
• Your data is saved for [90 days]
• You can reactivate anytime
• Just update your card to restore access
If you intended to cancel, no action needed — your account
will be paused automatically.
— [Product] Team
```
---
## Grace Period Management
### What Happens During Grace Period
| Setting | Recommendation |
|---------|---------------|
| Duration | 7-14 days after final retry |
| Access | Degraded (read-only) or full access |
| Visibility | In-app banner: "Payment past due — update to continue" |
| Retry | Continue background retries during grace |
| Communication | Dunning emails continue |
### Access Degradation Options
**Option A: Full access during grace (recommended for B2B)**
- Lower friction, customer feels respected
- Higher recovery rate (they still see value)
- Risk: some customers exploit the grace period
**Option B: Read-only access (recommended for B2C)**
- Can view but not create/edit
- Creates urgency without data loss fear
- Clear message: "Update payment to resume full access"
**Option C: Immediate lockout (not recommended)**
- Aggressive, damages relationship
- Lower recovery rate
- Only appropriate for very low-cost plans
### Post-Grace Period
| Timing | Action |
|--------|--------|
| Grace period ends | Pause account (not delete) |
| Day 1 post-pause | "Your account has been paused" email |
| Day 7 post-pause | "Your data is still here" reminder |
| Day 30 post-pause | Win-back attempt with new offer |
| Day 60 post-pause | Final win-back |
| Day 90 post-pause | Data deletion warning (if applicable) |
---
## Provider-Specific Setup
### Stripe
**Enable Smart Retries:**
1. Dashboard → Settings → Billing → Subscriptions and emails
2. Enable "Smart Retries" under retry rules
3. Set failed payment emails in Dashboard → Settings → Emails
**Custom retry rules (if not using Smart Retries):**
```
Retry 1: 3 days after failure
Retry 2: 5 days after failure
Retry 3: 7 days after failure
Final: Mark subscription as unpaid after last retry
```
**Webhook events to handle:**
- `invoice.payment_failed` — trigger dunning
- `invoice.paid` — cancel dunning, restore access
- `customer.subscription.updated` — status changes
- `customer.subscription.deleted` — final cancellation
### Chargebee
**Built-in dunning:**
1. Settings → Configure Chargebee → Retry Settings
2. Configure retry attempts and intervals
3. Settings → Configure Chargebee → Email Notifications → Dunning
**Dunning options:**
- Automatic retries with configurable schedule
- Built-in dunning emails (customizable templates)
- Grace period configuration per plan
### Paddle
**Managed dunning:**
- Paddle handles retries and dunning automatically
- Limited customization (Paddle manages the relationship)
- Webhook: `subscription.payment_failed`, `subscription.cancelled`
- Best for hands-off approach
### Recurly
**Revenue Recovery:**
1. Configuration → Dunning Management
2. Set retry schedule per plan
3. Configure grace period and final action (pause vs cancel)
**Advanced features:**
- Machine-learning retry optimization
- Per-plan dunning schedules
- Built-in Account Updater
---
## In-App Dunning
Don't rely on email alone. Show payment failures in the app:
### Banner Pattern
```
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ⚠ Your payment of $29 failed. Update your card to │
│ avoid losing access. [Update Payment →] [Dismiss] │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
**Rules:**
- Show on every page load during dunning period
- Allow dismiss (but show again next session)
- Direct link to payment update (fewest clicks possible)
- Don't block the product — let them continue using it
### Modal Pattern (for final warning)
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ Your account will be paused │
│ on [date] │
│ │
│ Update your payment method to │
│ keep access to your [X] projects │
│ and [Y] team members. │
│ │
│ [Update Payment Method] │
│ [Remind Me Later] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
```
---
## Measuring Dunning Performance
### Key Metrics
| Metric | How to Calculate | Target |
|--------|-----------------|--------|
| Recovery rate | Recovered payments / Total failed | 50-60% |
| Recovery rate by decline type | Recovered / Failed per type | Soft: 70%+, Hard: 40%+ |
| Time to recovery | Days from failure to successful payment | <5 days |
| Pre-dunning prevention rate | Prevented failures / Expected failures | 20-30% |
| Dunning email open rate | Opens / Sent per email | 60%+ |
| Dunning email click rate | Clicks / Opens per email | 30%+ |
| Revenue recovered (monthly) | Sum of recovered payment amounts | Track trend |
| Revenue lost to involuntary churn | Sum of failed + unrecovered amounts | Track trend |
### Benchmarking
**By company stage:**
| Stage | Typical Involuntary Churn | Target After Optimization |
|-------|--------------------------|--------------------------|
| Early (< $1M ARR) | 3-5% of MRR/month | 1-2% |
| Growth ($1-10M ARR) | 2-4% of MRR/month | 0.5-1.5% |
| Scale ($10M+ ARR) | 1-3% of MRR/month | 0.3-0.8% |
### ROI Calculation
```
Monthly failed payment MRR: $10,000
Current recovery rate: 30% ($3,000 recovered)
Target recovery rate: 60% ($6,000 recovered)
Monthly improvement: $3,000/month
Annual improvement: $36,000/year
Cost of dunning optimization: ~$200-500/month (tooling)
ROI: 6-15x
```