Backup research: add post-speedrun filesystem snapshot (6.8G, 69% outside /root) + reference to competitor profiling speed-run

blog/ideas/001-why-backing-up-an-agent-is-so-hard.md

@@ -1,47 +1,75 @@
 # 001 — Why backing up an agent is so hard
 
-**Status:** Idea
+**Status:** Research
 **Tags:** Technical, Backups, DevOps
 
 ## Research notes
 
-### Real filesystem changes after one week of work on a Linux agent
+### Real filesystem changes — from clean start through all speed-runs
+
+#### Snapshot 1: After one week of basic work (original data)
 
 ```
 504.6M  ./usr
  43.3M  ./var
 448.9M  ./root
  54.0K  ./etc
-996.8M  .
+996.8M  total
 ```
 
-Most users only back up the home directory (`/root` = 448.9M). But over half the changes live outside it — `/usr` (504.6M) and `/var` (43.3M) contain installed packages, pip/npm global installs, database files, logs, and system configs. A naive home-dir-only backup misses 55% of what changed.
+Home-dir-only backup would capture 448.9M (45%) — already missing 55% of what changed.
 
-At restore time, you get your config back but the agent won't run — missing dependencies, missing system packages, missing database files.
+#### Snapshot 2: After all speed-run setups including competitor profiling (current)
+
+```
+  4.3G  ./usr       ← 8.5× growth from 504.6M
+ 487.0M  ./var       ← 11.2× growth from 43.3M
+  2.1G  ./root       ← 4.7× growth from 448.9M
+  1.9M  ./etc        ← 35× growth from 54K
+  6.8G  total        ← 6.8× growth from 996.8M
+```
+
+**Home-dir-only backup now captures 2.1G (31%) — missing 69% of what changed.**
+
+#### What accounted for the growth (drill-down)
+
+| Location | Size | What | Speed-Run Trigger |
+|----------|------|------|-------------------|
+| `/usr/local/lib` | 2.3G | Hermes runtime, node_modules, python3.11 libs | Hermes Agent installation |
+| `/root/.npm/_cacache` | 390M | npm package cache | Node.js tooling for Hermes |
+| `/root/.hermes` | 412M | 19 skills, 1 plugin, 2 cron jobs, memories, config | All speed-runs |
+| `/root/.cache/huggingface` | 142M | HuggingFace model weights | STT / model download |
+| `/root/.cache/uv` | 186M | UV Python package cache | Hermes venv management |
+| `/var/cache/apt` | 379M | Debian package cache | System dependencies |
+| `/var/lib/apt` | 80M | APT package state | System dependencies |
+| `/usr/local/bin` | 28M | Executables (hermes CLI, etc.) | Hermes Agent installation |
+| `/root/.config` | 475K | App configs | Misc tools |
+| `/etc` | 1.9M | System config (hostname, apt sources, etc.) | OS configuration |
+
+**Total blog content created:** 5 posts (Odoo, Hermes setup, competitor profiling, cold email, mobile.de research)
 
 ### What this means for the post
 
 - Agent environments are not just config files — they're full Linux systems with packages, services, and state scattered everywhere
 - "Backup your home directory" is dangerously incomplete advice for AI agents
-- Derez.ai's full-disk snapshot approach is the right solution
+- The sprawl gets **worse** over time: after one week, 55% outside /root; after 3 speed-runs, 69% outside /root
+- Each new skill, plugin, model download, or cron job adds state in a different directory
+- Derez.ai's full-disk snapshot approach is the right solution — it captures everything, not just /root
 - This is a strong selling point: the agent works after restore, not just the config
 
-### Next data points
-
-Oliver will do two more memory analysis snapshots after running the speed-run setups (Odoo + Cold Email). Those will show how much additional state those integrations add.
-
 ### Outline
 
-1. The sprawl problem — why agents are harder to back up than a standard server  
+1. **The sprawl problem** — why agents are harder to back up than a standard server  
-   *Include the filesystem analysis table*
+   *Include the dual snapshot comparison table (Week 1 vs After Speed-Runs)*
-2. What a real agent backup needs to capture
+2. **Real data from a real agent** — walk through the 6.8G of state and where it lives
-3. How Borg/deduplicated snapshots solve it
+3. **The 69% problem** — what you lose with a home-dir-only backup
-4. How Derez.ai does it automatically (one-click restore)
+4. **How Borg/deduplicated snapshots solve it**
-5. Best practices for users
+5. **How Derez.ai does it automatically** (one-click restore, full-disk snapshots)
-6. Better save than sorry — the selling point
+6. **Better save than sorry** — the selling point with real numbers
 
 ### References
 
 - Borg backup docs
 - Hermes Agent directory structure (~/.hermes/)
-- Filesystem analysis: `du -sch /usr /var /root /etc` after one week
+- Speed Run: Competitor Profiling (derez.ai/blog/posts/speed-run-competitor-profiling.html) — the speed-run that pushed the system past 1G
+- Full filesystem analysis: `du -sch /usr /var /root /etc` before and after speed-runs

operations.html

@@ -717,7 +717,7 @@
                 </div>
                 <div class="blog-idea-body">
                     <div class="blog-idea-title">#001 — Why backing up an agent is so hard</div>
-                    <div class="blog-idea-desc">Modern AI agents install packages everywhere — pip in venvs, npm globally, configs scattered across /etc, ~/.config, /opt, custom paths. After one week: 504.6M in /usr, 448.9M in /root, 43.3M in /var — home-dir-only backup misses 55% of changes.</div>
+                    <div class="blog-idea-desc">After running all speed-runs (including competitor profiling), the system grew to 6.8G — with 69% outside /root. New data: dual-snapshot comparison showing sprawl worsens over time. Points to the competitor profiling speed-run as the trigger that pushed past 1G.</div>
                     <div class="blog-idea-meta">
                         <span class="blog-idea-tag">Technical</span>
                         <span class="blog-idea-tag">Backups</span>